b'22%1,16021%8998% 11%707 650 35%57723%373 26% 18%288 2141762010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018$1.40$1.30$1.20$1.11$1.00 $0.95$0.82$0.80$0.70$0.60 $0.60$0.51$0.44$0.40$0.38$0.20$0.00Electric Vehicles (EVs) 2004 EV share of vehicle 2018E 2020E2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016EThere is a lot of buzz about electric carsand Tesla.fleet by segmentThe advancement in the technology is spilling into the school bus market. Currently, the capital cost of electric vehicles remains more expensive than traditional gas-Share of fleetor diesel-powered vehicles.This fact is not lost on many people in the school bus90%industry who cant justify paying $350,000 for a new80% Buseselectric bus, when for the same purchase amount, they70% Lightcould buy at least three diesels. But when factoring incommercial60%maintenance and fuel costs, alone, EVs are dramatically50% Passengercheaper to operate. 40%The largest cost of EVs historically has been theMedium30% commercialbatteries. But these, like Moores law proves, have been experiencing exponential price/performance improve- 20% Heavyments. Just look at the dramatic cost declines: Battery10% commercialcosts have declined 85 percent over just eight years. And0%2019 2025 2030 2035 2040the decline cost is continuing.Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) in 2016 began analyzing theSource: BloombergNEFaverage cost of gas-powered vehicles, which are of-ten called ICEInternal Combustion Engines. BNEF concluded that the price of EV components wouldBut BNEF had to dramatically change its forecast, fall dramatically, and that by 2025 they would becomebecause battery costs are falling far faster than the com-cheaper than gas-powered vehicles on the purchasepany had predicted. BNEF now predicts that EVs will be price, alone. Thats only about five years away. cheaper than gas powered cars by 2022. Are you already 34School Transportation NewsSEPTEMBER 2019'