Last month, an STN EXPO Reno panel consisting of school bus OEMs and the industry’s largest engine manufacturer discussed the emissions path that is set before the industry. Most notably, what will the impact be of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s greenhouse gases Phase 3 rule that goes into effect with model-year 2027?
Understandably, the company representatives on stage from Blue Bird, Cummins, GreenPower, IC Bus, and Thomas Built Buses all refrained from predicting the future. Too much remains to be seen in a presidential election year. Adding to that uncertainty, the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the so-called Chevron deference, which allowed Congress to rely on federal agencies like the EPA to interpret any vagueness of laws. For example, the Clean Air Act, which EPA bases its emissions regulations on.
Two days before the panel, former President Donald Trump survived an assassin’s bullet at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania. Three days after the panel and the day after EXPO concluded, Trump formally accepted his presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention. Three days after that, President Joe Biden announced he was ending his run for a second term and was throwing his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Most prominent Democrats have since followed suit. The drama is reminiscent of the summer of 1968, after President Lyndon B. Johnson in March of that year announced he wouldn’t run for re-election. Biden made his announcement 106 days before Nov. 5 and after primary voters already selected him as the party nominee.
Democrat hopeful Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles in June 1968. College campuses nationwide were protesting the Vietnam War. The Democratic National Convention was in turmoil, though there doesn’t appear there will be nearly the same antagonism, vitriol and violence in Chicago this time around—hopefully.
What does this all mean for student transportation, you ask?
With Harris appearing to be headed for a showdown with Trump this fall, the near future of electric school buses (ESBs) would seem to be at stake. In accepting the GOP nomination, Trump said he would end the electric mandate his first day in office. There is no mandate, but EPA’s GHG Phase 3 rule certainly incentivizes electric vehicles while disincentivizing if not regulating internal combustion engines out of existence as the intent.
Trump wants to “Drill, baby, drill” the U.S. out of a dependence on foreign oil and he is anti-regulation. Diesel advocates point out that emissions have improved by over 90 percent since 2010, and Phase 3 will drive further reductions.
Meanwhile, the five-year, $5 billion Clean School Bus Program alone has awarded over 98 percent of funds for ESBs, with the remainder for propane school buses. Since hitting a high of over 3,200 units manufactured in 2019, propane output has fallen while electric school bus production has risen. With Cummins no longer pursuing a propane engine leaving Blue Bird with its ROUSH CleanTech propane autogas system as the sole industry provider of this option could propane eventually follow the path of its natural gas cousin, CNG, which has seen its annual production dwindle to under 200 units annually?
California, where Harris calls home, does not fund the purchase of propane school buses via state grants because propane is not a zero-emissions fuel, though the propane industry claims it beats electric in GHG emissions. Propane remains eligible under the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard with school districts required to report quantities used each year, but California wants all internal combustion engines to go away. Nine states adopted the state’s Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Omnibus Regulation that covers school bus emissions.
Yet U.S. natural gas deposits are among the richest in the world. Trump supports fracking, which is crucial for natural gas extraction. Harris was once a staunch opponent of fracking. Biden, on the other hand, backed away from a campaign promise to ban the practice on federal land, and Harris got in lockstep. Would she be emboldened by a November victory to end the practice?
One thing you can bet on, electric school bus proponents would be ecstatic with a Harris presidential victory. She introduced the Clean School Bus Act in the Senate while preparing to run against Biden and others for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination. HB2906 was a drop in the bucket precursor to the Clean School Bus Program. If she does get the Democrat nomination and goes on to defeat Trump this fall, could the industry see more federal electric bus funding after all? And what might that do for already extremely high ESB prices? Too many questions and no answers… yet.
Editor’s Note: As reprinted in the August 2024 issue of School Transportation News.
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