Electric School Bus Production Remains Flat, Mirrors Overall Data

Biggest gains made by Type A segment, according to survey of manufacturers

December 27, 2024

The IC Bus Tulsa manufacturing plant is referred to as “The Green Mile,” for its emerald-hued, mile-long assembly floor.

Ahead of President Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office and his promise to “drill, baby, drill,” school districts nationwide indicated they weren’t completely sold on electric school buses.

That is one conclusion that could be made after school bus manufacturers reported only 26 more electric school buses were manufactured despite year three of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s $5 billion Clean School Bus Program and a 145-percent increase in electric manufacturing the previous year.

It should be noted that school bus manufacturers have only so much current capacity at their factories for electric school buses despite recent new plants opening over the past year. However, one of those, Lion Electric’s plant in Joliet, Illinois, was closed at least temporarily at the end of 2024. At this report, it remained to be seen how long the struggling Canadian manufacturer would remain in business as it sought further extensions of credit lines as well as potential purchaser.

Previously, school bus OEMs have commented that they would each eventually need to achieve an annual output of at least 2,500 electric school buses, a figure widely considered to be necessary for for eventual market saturation. A bet made was that further EPA emissions regulations would phase out diesel.

But the political winds can change fast. While it remained to be seen what would happen to EPA’s Phase 3 GHG emissions regulations set to go into effect in 2027 under Trump, Daimler Truck North America in December announced a new $285 million capital investment into Detroit Diesel’s manufacturing campus in Michigan.

Diesel, indeed, continued to reign supreme as the fuel of choice, so shows the magazine’s annual survey of 10 school bus OEMs for the production cycle of Nov. 1, 2023, to Oct. 31, 2024, accounting for 22,889 school bus units manufactured. Gasoline came in second at 10,404 units. But 7,947 of those were Type A school buses with chassis provided by Ford or GM. Another 434 units not counted to that total were MFSABs.

Overall, the OEMs reported that school bus production decreased by over 2 percent during the 2023-2024 cycle, compared to the 17-plus percent increase in school bus output reported for 2022-2023. The slight dip in total numbers came in at 37,624 units, 2,928 of which were electric school buses.

Already the market share leader in propane, Blue Bird minimally benefited last year by competitors IC Bus and Thomas Built Buses no longer having an option to offer school districts and bus companies. Still, propane increased by 144 units to 1,958. Cummins announced last year it would not bring a propane version of its fuel agnostic engine to market, though it will offer gasoline starting next year. The survey data does not reflect any mass migration from one manufacturer to another in search of a propane option or to its gasoline relative.

Meanwhile, there was a significant jump in Type A production, as output spiked by 25 percent year-over year to 8,538 vehicles. One reason school districts embraced Type A over the past year could be the ongoing trend of finding a work-around to a lack of CDL school bus drivers. It could also reflect an easing of previous cutaway chassis shortages.

Overall, Type Cs continued to be the most specified school bus at 26,098 units, but that represented an over 10 percent decrease from 2022-2023 numbers. Type D increased 3,004 units from the previous figure of 2,601.

Editor’s Note: Reprinted from the School Transportation News 2025 Buyer’s Guide.